When we started this adoption process, the first unofficial guestimate we received from our adoption agency was 6 months. Our paperwork was complete. We could potentially travel to meet our daughter in 6 months. Gulp. That seemed a bit too short. We weren't nearly ready. But we were anticipating good things happening soon.
Now, for whatever reasons, there was a lot more waiting than that. But, as far as we can tell, we're next. We are currently targeting a June (maybe July) travel date, some 20 months from that first guestimate.
So, what does the rest of the line look like? Current estimates are that if paperwork were submitted today, that the wait could be 24-30 months. Personally, I believe that would represent an acceleration compared to the slowdown we have seen in the past year. I would say 36-42 months is more in line with the general trend we've seen this past year.
Of course, the saying "past performance does not imply future results" holds here. And rumors about about the cause of the slowdown, hoping that the causes will go away soon and the wait times would return back to "normal".
Why the slowdown? Some think that China is accelerating the pace of domestic adoptions. (That would be great if China were to put the infrastructure in place to care for its own babies.) Some think that China does not like to be thought of as the leading source for international adoptions. Some think that China is putting a good face on in advance of the 2008 Olympics (and they don't want a lot of news segments publicizing all the baby girls who don't have homes). Some think that there is much more demand in light of the well publicized international adoptions of some public figures.
Whatever the reasons, the line behind us could start even growing a lot faster in the future. Here's what I mean.
Remember the gas lines of the 70's? With gas prices held constant and the supply limited, gas was rationed. If I recall correctly, you could only get 10 gallons at a time, and only on certain days, based on whether your license plate was odd or even.
I remember my dad getting up early in the morning to beat the lines that would always circle the block around gas stations. If we were lucky, he'd return in time to join us for breakfast. Not that we necessarily needed gas that day. But because we wouldn't be allowed to get gas for another two days, he got gas early, just so we could have a full tank.
I'm not sure what the people with large pickup trucks or vans did back then. Get in line twice?
With all the cars filling up early "just in case we need it" and all the cars getting in line multiple times, that created a very long line indeed.
Well, back to the topic of international adoptions, we're starting to hear of families who look at this long line and think, "if it's going to take us 3 to 4 years to get a baby and we're going to want more than one, how can I get more than one application into the system?" And you can imagine what will happen to the line if families start turning in multiple applications at once. Maybe one to China. Maybe one to India. Maybe one to Russia. ...
Ugh.
But, if were me, it would certainly be worth investigating to see if the different adoption agencies permitted such a practice. And, if anyone reading this is considering applying for an international adoption, don't wait.
For us, this baby will complete our family. But for others who may be planning on future adoptions, the line to the roller coaster of international adoption could get quite a bit lot longer.
Now, if we could just figure out how to get a FastPass.
Dan
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